{"id":6530,"date":"2021-11-30T11:37:31","date_gmt":"2021-11-30T10:37:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/2021\/11\/30\/investing-in-water-supply-resilience-considering-future-uncertainty-and-management-flexibility\/"},"modified":"2025-04-23T17:14:29","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T15:14:29","slug":"investing-in-water-supply-resilience-considering-future-uncertainty-and-management-flexibility","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/2021\/11\/30\/investing-in-water-supply-resilience-considering-future-uncertainty-and-management-flexibility\/","title":{"rendered":"Investing in Water Supply Resilience Considering Future Uncertainty and Management Flexibility"},"content":{"rendered":"

The infrastructure required to provide sufficient high quality drinking water to urban areas over long time horizons is highly uncertain. The use of the real options method, which accounts for future uncertainty and considers management flexibility over time, can significantly improve the evaluation of water supply resilience enhancing investments when compared to traditional methods.<\/em><\/p>\n

<\/p>\n

The provision of high quality drinking water to urban areas is essential. Doing so continuously over long periods efficiently and effectively, however, is challenging. Part of the challenge is that decisions have to be made now as to the infrastructure required to service areas for decades even though there is considerable uncertainty in the future on both the demand side and the supply side. Another part of the challenge is that traditional investment evaluation methods are not particularly effective when there is substantial future uncertainty and management has the flexibility to observe how situations develop over time and act in a benefit maximizing way.<\/p>\n

\"Expected
Expected total costs with alternative interventions over a simulated time period of 60 years \u00a9 Infrastructure Management, ETH Zurich<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n

<\/h3>\n

Building on recent work in the evaluation of buildings (Neufville et al., 2019<\/a>; Esders, et al., 2020<\/a>), the infrastructure management group proposes to use real options to evaluate water supply resilience enhancing investments. Their recent work demonstrates how the real options method can be used to evaluate different possible investments considering uncertainties related to population growth, local industry water requirements, needs of neighboring communities, and on the amount of rainfall, where climate change is a significant contributing factor. The example used was the provision of water to an urban area consisting of approximately 75\u2019000 inhabitants, where the water was supplied through two lakes with restrictions on the extent of water level fluctuations to protect the fauna, and the water distribution network exhibited significant and increasing leakage due to deteriorating pipes (Adey et al., 2021<\/a>). Their work also shows that the use of real options can significantly improve decision-making with respect to traditional methods in the evaluation of large strategic investments that will affect multiple stakeholders.<\/p>\n

\"Supply
Supply and demand (left), and water level and the difference between supply and demand (right), over 60 years if no intervention are made to the current water distribution network \u00a9 Infrastructure Management, ETH Zurich.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n


\nProf. Dr. Bryan T. Adey<\/a> is the Head of the Infrastructure Management Group.
\nDr. Claudio Martani<\/a> is a research associate and lecturer in the Infrastructure Management Group of the Institute of Construction and Infrastructure Management, ETH Z\u00fcrich and passionate for future proof cities<\/a>.
\n<\/em>Prof. Dr. J\u00fcrgen Hackl\u00a0<\/a>is assistant professor at the Department of Civil Engineering and Industrial Design of the University of Liverpool.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The infrastructure required to provide sufficient high quality drinking water to urban areas over long time horizons is highly uncertain. The use of the real options method, which accounts for future uncertainty and considers management flexibility over time, can significantly improve the evaluation of water supply resilience enhancing investments when compared to traditional methods.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":3,"featured_media":6534,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"_kad_blocks_custom_css":"","_kad_blocks_head_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_body_custom_js":"","_kad_blocks_footer_custom_js":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[23],"tags":[],"departemente":[194,226,105],"newsletter_ausgabe":[307],"class_list":["post-6530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-newsletter-artikel","departemente-departement-bau-umwelt-und-geomatik-d-baug","departemente-institut-fuer-bau-und-infrastrukturmanagement-ibi","departemente-prof-dr-bryan-t-adey","newsletter_ausgabe-nl-52"],"acf":[],"taxonomy_info":{"category":[{"value":23,"label":"Newsletter-Artikel"}],"departemente":[{"value":194,"label":"Departement Bau, Umwelt und Geomatik (D-BAUG)"},{"value":226,"label":"Institut f\u00fcr Bau- und Infrastrukturmanagement (IBI)"},{"value":105,"label":"Prof. Dr. Bryan T. Adey"}],"newsletter_ausgabe":[{"value":307,"label":"NL 52"}]},"featured_image_src_large":["https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/wp-content\/uploads\/2021\/11\/Figure-2-1024x576.jpg",1024,576,true],"author_info":{"display_name":"Yaxin Hou","author_link":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/author\/houya\/"},"comment_info":0,"category_info":[{"term_id":23,"name":"Newsletter-Artikel","slug":"newsletter-artikel","term_group":0,"term_taxonomy_id":23,"taxonomy":"category","description":"","parent":0,"count":680,"filter":"raw","cat_ID":23,"category_count":680,"category_description":"","cat_name":"Newsletter-Artikel","category_nicename":"newsletter-artikel","category_parent":0}],"tag_info":false,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6530","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/3"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=6530"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6530\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6533,"href":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6530\/revisions\/6533"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/6534"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=6530"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=6530"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=6530"},{"taxonomy":"departemente","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/departemente?post=6530"},{"taxonomy":"newsletter_ausgabe","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/xoxo.capsule.ch\/fr\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/newsletter_ausgabe?post=6530"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}